[资讯] [讨论]一直想写，一直没写的——房价之我看（瘸猫理解版）

想飞的瘸猫

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">前两天说到房价，觉得现在大部分说法都不对。房价不会无故地涨也不会无故地跌。前一段看了老郎一个演讲稿，觉得有几分道理。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">ZF</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">说中国经济过热，根据是什么啊？人人说股市、楼市是国家经济晴雨表，但中国不是的。股楼过热，只反映出中国宏观经营环境地变差。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">目前中国推动楼市上涨的资金来源主要有：应该投资却没投的资金、</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">FB</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">黑金、国际热钱和储蓄外流资金。大家常认为的是第三、四项为主导，可事实并非如此，三、四项才是次要的，否则不可能多次调控，越调越涨。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">目前出台的政策主要针对面还是三四项资金的，而中国宏观环境的变差，导致企业投资不会有更好的回报，还会不得已投入楼市股市，从而再推高楼市股市。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">所以，从宏观面来看，目前楼市和股市的上涨还将持续，不会因为政策的调整而改变趋势。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">同时，通胀也是必然的形式。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">大家可以看看前期股市的上涨那些龙头，建筑行业领军啊，如：银行、地产、原材料、钢铁等，大部分是与楼市相关的。大家都知道这个行业好，回报高，资金必然流向建筑业，相关企业也就得利。而其他冷门企业呢？由于处在高地，资金越来越少。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">但国家不可能不发展他们了，可是又没钱，怎么办？印钱嘛。印了钱怎么样？通胀啦。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">这就是最简单道理，大家都去炒股炒楼了，因为回报高啊，买猪种的钱也投进去了，猪肉能不短缺？食品能不涨价？大家知道么？</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">06</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年底中国可是肉食大丰收的一年啊！</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">07</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年食品怎么会涨这么快？不合市场规律啊！原因就在于此。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">所以，无论多少钱，在此种大环境下，买房、买金、买一些硬通货，都是正确的选择，有了硬通货，无论是涨是跌，你的购买力才不会发生变化，才能保值。房价跌也不可怕，那说明经济硬着陆了，人民币的购买力也会提升，所以目前不用讨论房价跌了怎么办。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 27pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.57;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;; mso-hansi-font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">先说这么多，还在上班呢，写太多了让别人看见也不好。</span></p>
7 @5 _) G1 Y4 n( U- 管庄|常营|社区论坛|业主论坛|柏林爱乐|鑫兆佳园|朝阳区|北京 - bbs.myberlin.cn

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-10-23 16:17:55编辑过]

大花脸

朗咸平的合肥演讲我仔细看完

想飞的瘸猫

<p>不是合肥演讲，最新的是9月28号在上海《最具成长型企业发展高峰论坛演讲》</p><p>？</p><p>我上传了word的文件，怎么不显示呢？只能传图片啊？</p>柏林爱乐论坛 Berlin Philharmonic. g2 m/ u8 b  m4 `

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-10-23 16:10:47编辑过]

renew

楼主这文章能不能每段之间空点格呀，看着稍微有那么一点点的累。。。。。。

小菜

分析的很专业！[em17]

想飞的瘸猫

<div class="quote"><b>以下是引用<i>renew</i>在2007-10-23 16:16:05的发言：</b><br/>楼主这文章能不能每段之间空点格呀，看着稍微有那么一点点的累。。。。。。</div><p></p>知错就改……好同志

renew

这回看着好多了，加油～～～听人劝，吃饱饭

想飞的瘸猫

<p>听了就能吃饱？</p><p>好，那今晚我就跟家等着饭啦。：）</p>

renew

行，你到了饭点儿就在家张着嘴等着就行了。。。

想飞的瘸猫

蟑螂从房顶掉下来……